A payments app ran a festive campaign offering Rs 100 cashback on transactions above Rs 500, capped at three per user. Budget was Rs 12 crore, fully spent. Transactions in the period rose 34% year on year against a category rise of 21%. New user signups rose 9%. Of users who claimed cashback, 76% were already monthly active before the campaign. Transactions in the four weeks after the campaign were 4% below the four weeks before it. Average transaction value among claimers fell from Rs 1,240 to Rs 680.
Establish what the campaign was trying to achieve, read the numbers, separate the idea from the execution, and say what you would have done with the same budget.
100 points, 60% to pass.
Almost every headline number is flattering and almost none of it is incremental. The category rose 21% anyway, so 34% is a 13-point lift at best. Seventy-six per cent of claimers were already active, so most of the Rs 12 crore subsidised behaviour that would have happened. Average transaction value collapsing from Rs 1,240 to Rs 680 shows users splitting transactions to hit the Rs 500 threshold three times — the cap design created the gaming. The post-period dip of 4% suggests pull-forward rather than habit. A strong critique separates the idea (festive incentive) from the execution (threshold and cap) and reallocates to new or lapsed users where the money would have bought something.