Halcyon Bank: Every Channel Claims the Same Sale
Marketing
medium40 min0 submissionsBain
Scenario
Halcyon Bank sells retail banking in UK. Last quarter it spent £166 M across three channels: brand (36%), paid search (34%) and paid social (30%).
The company recorded 20,041 conversions. Added together, the channel dashboards claim 36,274 — about 1.81x the real number.
Paid search reports the best return and the search team wants more budget. Brand reports the worst and is under pressure to justify itself. Attribution is last-click. Nobody has run a holdout test.
Supporting data
conversions
- actual recorded
- 20041
- overclaim multiple
- 1.81
- sum of channel claims
- 36274
measurement
- model
- last click
- holdout tests run
- 0
total spend m166
spend split pct
- brand
- 36
- paid search
- 34
- paid social
- 30
Your task
Advise the CMO. Your answer should provide:
- Analysis — what the reported numbers can and cannot tell you, quantified.
- Risks — what happens if you reallocate on last-click alone.
- Recommendation — a budget decision and the experiment that would prove it.
State any assumptions you make.
Ready to move forward? Up next: Verity Insurance: How Much Stock Is the Right Amount?Next question
How you'll be graded
80 points, 60% to pass.
- recommendation15
- market analysis25
- risk assessment20
- financial analysis20
Hint
Reveal suggested structure
Separate correlation from incrementality. Last-click credits the final touch; demand generation appears worthless under it. Design a holdout before reallocating.