Otter Payments: Every Channel Claims the Same Sale
Marketing
medium40 min0 submissionsMorgan Stanley
Scenario
Otter Payments sells fintech in Southeast Asia. Last quarter it spent $81 M across three channels: brand (35%), paid search (34%) and paid social (31%).
The company recorded 9,441 conversions. Added together, the channel dashboards claim 16,050 — about 1.7x the real number.
Paid search reports the best return and the search team wants more budget. Brand reports the worst and is under pressure to justify itself. Attribution is last-click. Nobody has run a holdout test.
Supporting data
conversions
- actual recorded
- 9441
- overclaim multiple
- 1.7
- sum of channel claims
- 16050
measurement
- model
- last click
- holdout tests run
- 0
total spend m81
spend split pct
- brand
- 35
- paid search
- 34
- paid social
- 31
Your task
Advise the CMO. Your answer should provide:
- Analysis — what the reported numbers can and cannot tell you, quantified.
- Risks — what happens if you reallocate on last-click alone.
- Recommendation — a budget decision and the experiment that would prove it.
State any assumptions you make.
Ready to move forward? Up next: Otter Payments: Is the Growth Worth What It Costs?Next question
How you'll be graded
80 points, 60% to pass.
- recommendation15
- market analysis25
- risk assessment20
- financial analysis20
Hint
Reveal suggested structure
Separate correlation from incrementality. Last-click credits the final touch; demand generation appears worthless under it. Design a holdout before reallocating.