Quantile Capital: This Market Size Looks Too Big
Consulting
medium35 min0 submissionsMorgan Stanley
Scenario
A junior consultant has sized the annual replacement market for a household appliance in UK. The number is being used to justify a £181 M capacity investment.
Their working, verbatim
Population is 169m. Average household size is 5, so there are about 34m households.
Penetration of this appliance is 27%.
Appliances are replaced every 8 years.
So annual replacement demand = 169m × 27% ÷ 8 = 5.7m units per year.
At £4301 per unit, that is a market of roughly £24,532 M a year.
The partner has asked you to check it before it goes in the deck.
Supporting data
derived hints
- corrected units m
- 1.1
- overstatement multiple
- 5
stated working
- households m
- 34
- population m
- 169
- household size
- 5
- price per unit
- 4301
- stated units m
- 5.7
- penetration pct
- 27
- replacement years
- 8
Your task
Check the estimate. Your answer should provide:
- Analysis — find the error and quantify how much it distorts the answer.
- Risks — what depends on this number being right.
- Recommendation — the corrected size, computed, and how you would sanity-check it.
State any assumptions you make.
Ready to move forward? Up next: Marlow Chemicals: Pressure-Test This RecommendationNext question
How you'll be graded
100 points, 60% to pass.
- explanation20
- residual review15
- error identification35
- quantitative correction30
Hint
Reveal suggested structure
Unit consistency; households vs individuals; recompute; sanity-check against a known anchor