Vantage Analytics: One Supplier, One Region, One Problem
Vantage Analytics makes B2B SaaS products for India. A single supplier provides a component representing ₹191 Cr of annual spend — around a third of bill-of-materials cost — and there is no qualified alternative.
Procurement has found a second source. It would cost about 9.9% more per unit and take 4 months to qualify. The incumbent has hinted that splitting the volume would cost the company its current pricing tier.
Risk modelling puts the chance of a material disruption at that supplier at roughly 7% a year, with an expected outage of 5 weeks. Contribution margin at risk is about ₹0.92 Cr a week if the line stops.
The alternative supplier's plant is in the same region as the incumbent's.
risk model
- expected outage weeks
- 5
- annual disruption probability pct
- 7
- contribution margin at risk per week cr
- 0.92
alternative
- region
- same as incumbent
- qualification months
- 4
- unit cost premium pct
- 9.9
current sourcing
- suppliers
- 1
- annual spend cr
- 191
- share of bom pct
- 33
Advise the COO. Your answer should provide:
- Analysis — price the insurance. What does dual sourcing cost, and what expected loss does it avoid?
- Risks — including whether this second source actually reduces the risk you care about.
- Recommendation — a sourcing structure and volume split, with the trigger to revisit.
State any assumptions you make.
80 points, 60% to pass.
- recommendation15
- market analysis20
- risk assessment25
- financial analysis20
Reveal suggested structure
Expected loss = probability x duration x margin per week. Compare against the annual premium of holding a second source. Then test whether the sources are correlated.