A fitness chain is choosing between expansion cities. Take a representative Tier 2 city of about 20 lakh people.
Estimate the number of people paying for a gym membership in that city. Break the population down before computing, and say what would most change your answer.
100 points, 60% to pass.
Filter the population down: working-age share, urban middle-income share, then penetration of paid fitness. Penetration is the assumption carrying all the weight and is far lower in Tier 2 than intuition suggests. A good answer distinguishes paying members from people who exercise, and flags that informal gyms may not be captured in the client's definition.