Kirana Connect: Paid Growth Is Getting Expensive
Product Management
medium45 min0 submissionsFlipkart
Scenario
Kirana Connect's retail tech product has grown almost entirely through paid acquisition. That is becoming unsustainable.
Unit economics (monthly):
- Blended CAC: $2,284
- ARPU: $1,134
- Gross margin: 64%
- Monthly churn: 7.6%
Existing referral behaviour:
- 12% of active users invite at least one other person
- 15% of those invitations convert to a signup
CAC has risen 44% over 18 months as auction competition increased. The CEO wants a growth model that does not depend on buying every user.
Supporting data
trend
- cac increase 18m pct
- 44
referral
- implied k factor
- 0.018
- users inviting pct
- 12
- invite conversion pct
- 15
unit economics
- blended cac
- 2284
- arpu monthly
- 1134
- estimated ltv
- 9549
- ltv cac ratio
- 4.18
- gross margin pct
- 64
- monthly churn pct
- 7.6
Your task
Design the growth strategy. Provide:
- Analysis — current unit economics, payback period, and the strength of the existing loop.
- Risks — of the loop you propose and of continuing as-is.
- Recommendation — the specific loop to build and how you would prove it works.
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How you'll be graded
100 points, 60% to pass.
- loop design25
- growth model25
- recommendation25
- quantitative reasoning25
Hint
Reveal suggested structure
- LTV = ARPU × gross margin ÷ churn.
- LTV:CAC and payback period = CAC ÷ (ARPU × margin).
- K-factor = invite rate × conversion rate. K ≥ 1 is self-sustaining; below that the loop amplifies but does not replace paid.
- Identify the loop type — viral, content, or paid-recycled.
- Find the weakest step and fix that, rather than adding a new channel.