Cobalt Robotics: Own the Fleet or Rent It?
Cobalt Robotics operates in industrial robotics across Japan. It needs additional equipment for the next 6 years and has two offers on the table.
Buy: ¥53 B up front, depreciated straight-line over 6 years, with an expected resale value of about 18% of cost at the end.
Lease: ¥12.4 B per year for 6 years, fully deductible, with the lessor carrying maintenance and taking the asset back at the end.
The company's discount rate is 14% and its effective tax rate is 25%. Current utilisation of the existing equivalent fleet runs at 70%, and the operations director expects demand in this segment to be lumpy.
buy option
- purchase price b
- 53
- residual value b
- 9.5
- depreciation years
- 6
- residual value pct
- 18
assumptions
- discount rate pct
- 14
- effective tax rate pct
- 25
- current fleet utilisation pct
- 70
lease option
- term years
- 6
- annual payment b
- 12.4
- maintenance included
- true
Advise the CFO. Your answer should provide:
- Analysis — the present value of each option, on a comparable after-tax basis.
- Risks — utilisation, obsolescence, and what the balance sheet treatment changes.
- Recommendation — lease or buy, with the number, and the condition that would reverse it.
State any assumptions you make.
80 points, 60% to pass.
- recommendation20
- market analysis15
- risk assessment20
- financial analysis25
Reveal suggested structure
Discount both after-tax cash flow streams over the same horizon, include depreciation tax shield and residual on the buy side, then test against utilisation.