Cobalt Robotics: Own the Fleet or Rent It?

Finance
medium35 min0 submissions
BCG
Scenario

Cobalt Robotics operates in industrial robotics across Japan. It needs additional equipment for the next 6 years and has two offers on the table.

Buy: ¥53 B up front, depreciated straight-line over 6 years, with an expected resale value of about 18% of cost at the end.

Lease: ¥12.4 B per year for 6 years, fully deductible, with the lessor carrying maintenance and taking the asset back at the end.

The company's discount rate is 14% and its effective tax rate is 25%. Current utilisation of the existing equivalent fleet runs at 70%, and the operations director expects demand in this segment to be lumpy.

Supporting data

buy option

purchase price b
53
residual value b
9.5
depreciation years
6
residual value pct
18

assumptions

discount rate pct
14
effective tax rate pct
25
current fleet utilisation pct
70

lease option

term years
6
annual payment b
12.4
maintenance included
true
Your task

Advise the CFO. Your answer should provide:

  1. Analysis — the present value of each option, on a comparable after-tax basis.
  2. Risks — utilisation, obsolescence, and what the balance sheet treatment changes.
  3. Recommendation — lease or buy, with the number, and the condition that would reverse it.

State any assumptions you make.

Ready to move forward? Up next: Valuing Cobalt Robotics: A Five-Year DCFNext question
How you'll be graded

80 points, 60% to pass.

  • recommendation20
  • market analysis15
  • risk assessment20
  • financial analysis25
Hint
Reveal suggested structure

Discount both after-tax cash flow streams over the same horizon, include depreciation tax shield and residual on the buy side, then test against utilisation.