Should Cobalt Robotics Enter Poland?
Consulting
hard50 min0 submissionsMcKinsey
Scenario
Cobalt Robotics is a industrial robotics company with ¥512 B of revenue in its home market of Japan. Growth at home has slowed to low single digits and the board is looking abroad.
Poland has been identified as the priority candidate. Early desk research suggests:
- Addressable market of roughly ¥2804 B, growing 10% a year
- The largest incumbent holds about 62% share, with a long tail of local players
- Entry would require an estimated ¥243 B over three years
- Regulatory approval takes 9-18 months, and local partnership requirements apply to foreign entrants
The strategy team's paper projects 12% market share within five years. The CFO has asked whether that projection is credible and whether this is the best use of ¥243 B.
Supporting data
entry
- estimated investment b
- 243
- local partnership required
- true
- projected share year 5 pct
- 12
- regulatory timeline months
- 9-18
home market
- revenue b
- 512
- growth pct
- 4
target market
- geography
- Poland
- market growth pct
- 10
- addressable market b
- 2804
- largest incumbent share pct
- 62
Your task
Advise the board. Provide:
- Analysis — size the opportunity yourself, assess the competitive landscape, and evaluate entry modes.
- Risks — what would make this fail, and what you would monitor.
- Recommendation — enter or don't. If entering, specify the mode and sequence.
Challenge the 12% share assumption explicitly.
Ready to move forward? Up next: Solstice Travel: Plenty of Demand, Nothing to BuyNext question
How you'll be graded
100 points, 60% to pass.
- entry mode20
- market sizing25
- recommendation20
- risk assessment15
- competitive analysis20
Hint
Reveal suggested structure
- Size it independently — bottom-up: population → addressable segment → penetration → frequency → price. Compare against the ¥2804 B figure.
- Attractiveness — growth, fragmentation, margin structure.
- Right to win — what does Cobalt Robotics have that local players don't?
- Entry mode — organic, acquisition, joint venture, licensing, against the barriers found.
- Economics — revenue at 12% share vs the ¥243 B investment, with a payback period.
- Decide with staged commitments and kill criteria.