Market Sizing: Corporate wellness subscriptions in Japan
Cobalt Robotics is considering launching corporate wellness subscriptions in Japan and needs a defensible estimate of the annual market before committing to a business plan.
There is no reliable published market research for this category in Japan. You have roughly 202 million people in the addressable region, a broadly typical income distribution for the geography, and no proprietary data.
The investment committee does not expect precision. It expects a number it can interrogate, with every assumption visible and challengeable.
context
- product
- corporate wellness subscriptions
- geography
- Japan
- addressable population millions
- 202
Estimate the annual market size for corporate wellness subscriptions in Japan. Provide:
- Analysis — your structure, assumptions and arithmetic.
- Risks — which assumptions your answer is most sensitive to.
- Recommendation — your estimate, as a range, and how you would validate it.
State every assumption. Round aggressively — precision here is false comfort.
100 points, 60% to pass.
- structure30
- arithmetic20
- assumptions30
- sense check20
Reveal suggested structure
Bottom-up is usually more defensible:
Population → filter to the relevant buying unit (households, businesses, vehicles) → penetration rate → purchase frequency or replacement cycle → average price → annual market value.
Then cross-check top-down: total category spend in the geography × the share this product could represent.
If the two land within a factor of two, the estimate is usable. If not, one assumption is wrong — find it.