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Vantage Analytics: Trial-to-paid conversion Dropped 23%

Product Management
easy40 min1 submission
Goldman Sachs
Scenario

You are the PM for Vantage Analytics's core B2B SaaS product.

Trial-to-paid conversion has fallen 23% over the past 11 days. The drop appears concentrated in Android and is most pronounced in the US.

Context that may or may not be relevant:

  • A redesigned onboarding flow shipped 12 days ago to 33% of users
  • Marketing paused a paid acquisition campaign 8 days ago
  • A competitor launched a free tier last month
  • The data team migrated the analytics pipeline 15 days ago

Your VP wants an answer by end of day and is already asking whether the redesign should be rolled back.

Supporting data

incident

metric
trial-to-paid conversion
drop pct
23
window days
11
concentrated region
the US
concentrated platform
Android

recent changes

onboarding rollout pct
33
onboarding redesign days ago
12
competitor free tier launched
last month
paid campaign paused days ago
8
analytics pipeline migrated days ago
15
Your task

Diagnose the drop. Provide:

  1. Analysis — how you would structure the investigation and which hypotheses you would test in what order.
  2. Risks — of acting too early, and of acting too late.
  3. Recommendation — your diagnostic sequence and what you would tell the VP today.

Be specific about the data cuts you would pull.

Ready to move forward? Up next: Marlow Chemicals: One Quarter, Five DemandsNext question
How you'll be graded

100 points, 60% to pass.

  • data analysis25
  • recommendation25
  • problem structuring25
  • hypothesis generation25
Hint
Reveal suggested structure
  1. Is it real? Check instrumentation first — the pipeline migration is the cheapest hypothesis to eliminate and the most embarrassing to miss.
  2. Decompose the metric. For DAU: new + returning + resurrected − churned. Which component moved?
  3. Segment. Platform, region, cohort, acquisition channel, new vs existing users.
  4. Timeline. Does the drop align with a specific deploy, or is it gradual?
  5. Internal vs external. Internal changes are testable and reversible; external ones are not.
  6. Act on the evidence, with a rollback only if the evidence points there.