Cobalt Robotics: The Synergy Case, Twelve Months In
Cobalt Robotics completed a merger in industrial robotics a year ago, creating a ¥896 B business in Japan.
The deal model promised ¥39 B of annual cost synergies and ¥194 B of revenue synergies by year 2, against ¥100 B of one-off integration cost.
Twelve months in, about 40% of the cost synergies have landed. None of the revenue synergies have. Customer overlap between the two businesses turned out to be 17%, higher than diligence assumed. Voluntary attrition in the acquired sales team is running at twice the normal rate.
The CEO has to give the board a revised number.
actual 12m
- customer overlap pct
- 17
- acquired sales attrition
- 2x normal
- cost synergy realised pct
- 40
- revenue synergy realised pct
- 0
deal model
- target year
- 2
- annual cost synergy b
- 39
- annual revenue synergy b
- 194
- one off cost to achieve b
- 100
Advise the CEO. Your answer should provide:
- Analysis — a defensible revised synergy figure, split by type and netted of cost to achieve.
- Risks — the dis-synergies the original model left out.
- Recommendation — what to commit to publicly, and the sequence to get there.
State any assumptions you make.
80 points, 60% to pass.
- recommendation15
- market analysis15
- risk assessment25
- financial analysis25
Reveal suggested structure
Cost synergies are controllable and land; revenue synergies depend on customers and usually do not. Net off cost to achieve and dis-synergies before committing.