Cobalt Robotics: Buy the Supplier or Keep Buying From Them?

Strategy
medium45 min0 submissions
BCG
Scenario

Cobalt Robotics operates in industrial robotics across Japan. It buys a critical input worth ¥163 B a year from 4 suppliers, who earn an estimated 23% margin on it.

The strategy team argues the company should build its own plant: ¥330 B of capital and ¥86 B a year of fixed cost, running economically only above about 61% utilisation.

The CEO's case is that the supplier margin is "our money". The COO points out the company has never run a plant of this kind, and that demand for the end product has swung by more than 20% in each of the last three years.

Supporting data

context

end demand volatility pct
20
prior manufacturing experience
none

current

margin pool b
37.5
supplier count
4
annual purchase b
163
estimated supplier margin pct
23

build option

capex b
330
annual fixed cost b
86
economic utilisation threshold pct
61
Your task

Advise the board. Your answer should provide:

  1. Analysis — the margin at stake versus the cost of capturing it, and the break-even volume.
  2. Risks — operational, strategic and demand-related.
  3. Recommendation — integrate, partner, or keep buying, with the condition that changes it.

State any assumptions you make.

Ready to move forward? Up next: Northwind Energy: Is the Growth Worth What It Costs?Next question
How you'll be graded

80 points, 60% to pass.

  • recommendation15
  • market analysis25
  • risk assessment20
  • financial analysis20
Hint
Reveal suggested structure

Size the margin pool, subtract the fixed cost of owning it, then test against demand volatility and the utilisation threshold.